Provident Energy Consulting

NYMEX February Gas Up As Cold Weather Expected Throughout US


The NYMEX February natural gas futures contract increased 6.9 cents on the day to settle at $3.482/MMBtu on Friday as cold weather is expected in the entire US.

The most recent eight- to 14-day forecast from the National Weather
Service calls for lower-than-average temperatures for most of the US.
The Northeast will be subject to the coldest weather during this time.
In general, the NYMEX February contract has shown strength lately,
averaging $3.474/MMBtu the last five trading sessions. In the first 10
days of January, the February contract averaged $2.973/MMBtu.
The colder weather expected in the coming days overpowered
some of the recent bearish sentiment.
US demand fell 3.3 Bcf/d on the day to 95.6 Bcf/d on Friday,
according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. US demand has fallen 11.4
Bcf/d in the last four days.
Texas and the Northeast made up most of the declines. Texas
demand fell 700 MMcf to 14.5 Bcf on Friday. In the Northeast, total
demand fell 1.4 Bcf on the day to 17.7 Bcf, according to Platts Analytics.
Adding some downward pressure on Friday was the lower-thanaverage withdrawal of 81 Bcf that was announced by the Energy Information Administration on Thursday. The five-year-average withdrawal for this time is 218 Bcf.
The below-average withdrawal puts US natural gas storage levels
at an estimated 2.533 Tcf, cutting the deficit against the five-year
average to 11.4%, according to EIA data.
LNG feedgas demand fell 1 Bcf in the last five days to 3.9 Bcf on
Friday, according to Platts Analytics. The decrease in LNG feedgas
demand has also put downward pressure on the market.

Source: Platts 2019

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