Provident Energy Consulting

NYMEX March Gas Futures Contract Climbs to the Highest Level All Month


The NYMEX March natural gas futures contract settled Monday at $2.836/MMBtu, up 11.9 cents on the day, and its highest level since January 31.

During morning trading, the front-month contract traded in a range
of $2.733/MMBtu to $2.842/MMBtu. The April and May contracts both
traded up about 7 cents from Friday's settle.
Last week, the US Energy Information Administration announced a
larger-than-expected storage pull of 177 Bcf for the week of February
15. Persisting winter temperatures in the northern regions suggest
winter demand is not over.
“It looks like the weather forecast will add to the support side of
the market," said Phil Flynn, senior energy analyst with Price Futures
Group. “We are about to go into March like a lion,” he said, referring to
weather-induced demand from a lingering northern winter.
The National Weather Service’s eight- to 14-day forecast shows a
wide span of cold weather now covering both the Midcontinent and the
Northwest. Conversely, warmer-than-average weather is projected for
areas in the Southeast and Southwest regions.
The March-May seasonal outlook continues to suggest nationwide
warmer than average temperatures, especially in the Northwest and
Northeast.
According to S&P Global Platts Analytics, total US demand
increased through the weekend and is expected to peak at 104.3 Bcf
Monday, before decreasing through the rest of the week.
Other demand influencers have been less volatile. US exports to
both Mexico and to LNG feedgas are both expected to remain flat
Monday at 5 Bcf and 5.4 Bcf, respectively, according to Platts Analytics
data. LNG feedgas levels are slated to decrease in the coming two
weeks as Mexico exports hold steady, the data shows.

Source: Platts 2019

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