Provident Energy Consulting

NYMEX April Gas Futures Contract Trades up Following EIA Storage Report

The NYMEX April natural gas futures contract moved upwards Thursday following a storage pull reported by the US Energy Information Administration that leaves stocks 25% below the five-year average.

On Thursday, the NYMEX April natural gas futures contract settled
at $2.866/MMBtu, up 2.5 cents from Wednesday’s close.
The April contract traded in a range of $2.812/MMBtu and $2.871/
The US Energy Information Association estimated a 149 Bcf pull from
gas storage stocks for the week that ended Friday, a withdrawal slightly above the 146 Bcf consensus of analysts S&P Global Platts surveyed, but within the wider range of draws between 130 Bcf and 180 Bcf.
Inventory stocks are now at 1.390 Tcf, sitting 464 Bcf below the
five-year average of 1.854 Tcf. This reflects higher late-term winter
demand seen this year, up 23.9 Bcf from this time a year ago,
according to S&P Global Platts Analytics.
The reported value is within the five-year historical range, but sits
14.9 Bcf below levels this time last year.
US demand is projected to fall 10.3 Bcf day on day to 104.5 Bcf, as
demand tumbles into the weekend, according to Platts Analytics.
The decreases are led by weakening residential and commercial
demand, which is expected to sit at 50.7 Bcf Thursday and fall to an
average of 35.9 Bcf/d in the eight- to 14-day forecast, Platts Analytics
data shows.
Conversely, US exports to LNG feedgas and to Mexico have been
sustained over 10 Bcf/d for over a week. LNG feedgas sendout is expected to kick up to 5.6 Bcf Thursday, up nearly 2 Bcf from this time a year ago. Prices also tipped upwards further out, with May and June settling at $2.872/MMbtu and $2.910/MMbtu, respectively, over 2 cents up from Wednesday's close.

Source: Platts 2019

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